Abstract
After a preliminary explanation as to how I came to know Andy Grieve and some remarks about his career and mine and how they have intersected, I consider the design and analysis of trials of vaccines for COVID-19 for the purpose of estimating efficacy. Five large trials, run by the sponsors Pfizer/BioNTech, AstraZeneca/Oxford University, Moderna, Novavax and J&J Janssen are considered briefly. Frequentist approaches to analysis were used for four of the trials but Pfizer/BioNTech nominated a Bayesian approach. The design and analysis of this trial is considered in some detail, in particular as regards the choice of prior distribution. I conclude by drawing some general lessons.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 790-807 |
Number of pages | 18 |
Journal | Pharmaceutical Statistics |
Volume | 21 |
Issue number | 4 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Jul 2022 |
Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Bayesian
- conditional inference
- design of experiments
- frequentist
- sequential design
- vaccine efficacy