Prevision des records du monde du 200 metres et du marathon

Translated title of the contribution: Prediction of world records over 200m and over marathon

V. Bocquet*, N. Blondel, V. Billat

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review


Aim. - Try to predict world records in running over 200 meters and over marathon, distances representative of speed quality and human endurance, respectively. Methods and results. - We have then used a smoothing exponential model to predict world records from actual ones. It is a combination between observed and predicted values at previous time. The prediction of future world records shows a male world record run in two hours in 2010. Record over 200 meters is estimated in 19.0 s in 2005. Conclusion. - World records over 200 meters are independent on used modelling contrary to marathon. (C) 2000 Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS.

Translated title of the contributionPrediction of world records over 200m and over marathon
Original languageFrench
Pages (from-to)264-266
Number of pages3
JournalScience and Sports
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2000
Externally publishedYes


  • Modelling
  • Prediction
  • Records
  • Running


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