TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden
AU - Kemp, Françoise
AU - Proverbio, Daniele
AU - Aalto, Atte
AU - Mombaerts, Laurent
AU - Fouquier d'Hérouël, Aymeric
AU - Husch, Andreas
AU - Ley, Christophe
AU - Gonçalves, Jorge
AU - Skupin, Alexander
AU - Magni, Stefano
N1 - Funding Information:
FK’s is supported by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) PRIDE DTU PARK-QC [Grant No.: PRIDE17/12244779/PARK-QC]. DP’s and SM’s work is supported by the FNR PRIDE DTU CriTiCS [grant reference: 10907093]. A.H.’s work is partially supported by the Foundation Cancer Luxembourg. JG is partly supported by the 111 Project on Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Control [reference: B18024]. AA is supported by the FNR [project code: 13684479]. AS is supported by the FNR [project: C14/BM/7975668/CaSCAD] and by the National Biomedical Computation Resource (NBCR) [Grant No.: NIH P41 GM103426] from the National Institutes of Health.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors
PY - 2021/12/7
Y1 - 2021/12/7
N2 - Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number Refft below 1, for all three countries. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at constant rate would require on average 1,700 fully vaccinated people/day in Luxembourg, 24,000 in Austria and 28,000 in Sweden, and could lead to herd immunity only by mid summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines rollout speeds are employed. The model thus estimates which vaccination rates are too low to allow reaching herd immunity in 2021, depending on social interactions. Vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to curb the infection; thus limiting social interactions remains crucial for the months to come.
AB - Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number Refft below 1, for all three countries. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at constant rate would require on average 1,700 fully vaccinated people/day in Luxembourg, 24,000 in Austria and 28,000 in Sweden, and could lead to herd immunity only by mid summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines rollout speeds are employed. The model thus estimates which vaccination rates are too low to allow reaching herd immunity in 2021, depending on social interactions. Vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to curb the infection; thus limiting social interactions remains crucial for the months to come.
KW - Bayesian inference
KW - Cross-country comparison
KW - Healthcare system
KW - Markov Chain Monte Carlo
KW - SEIR model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85114698799&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110874
DO - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110874
M3 - Article
C2 - 34425136
AN - SCOPUS:85114698799
SN - 0022-5193
VL - 530
JO - Journal of Theoretical Biology
JF - Journal of Theoretical Biology
M1 - 110874
ER -