Innovative methods in assessing political risk for business internationalization

Ruth Rios-Morales*, Dragan Gamberger, Tom Šmuc, Francisco Azuaje

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    25 Citations (Scopus)


    Political risk assessment, together with portfolio analysis, has become an important part of international business investment decision making. In this paper, by using different knowledge discovery techniques, we attempt to assess the relevance and actionability of 'good governance' indicators in political risk assessment. For that purpose, we have integrated good governance indicators data with political instability classification from the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) research. From this study, two models that capture the intuitive reasoning of investors have been developed. The usefulness of the models has been evaluated by comparison with factual investment data. Our findings suggest that quantitative indicators of good governance may provide the basis for accurate and meaningful models for the assessment and prediction of political risk.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)144-156
    Number of pages13
    JournalResearch in International Business and Finance
    Issue number2
    Publication statusPublished - Jun 2009


    • Data mining
    • Good governance
    • Investment risk
    • Machine learning
    • Political instability
    • Statistical analysis


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