TY - JOUR
T1 - Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015
T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
AU - Vos, T.
AU - Allen, C.
AU - Arora, M.
AU - Barber, R. M.
AU - Brown, A.
AU - Carter, A.
AU - Casey, D. C.
AU - Charlson, F. J.
AU - Chen, A. Z.
AU - Coggeshall, M.
AU - Cornaby, L.
AU - Dandona, L.
AU - Dicker, D. J.
AU - Dilegge, T.
AU - Erskine, H. E.
AU - Ferrari, A. J.
AU - Fitzmaurice, C.
AU - Fleming, T.
AU - Forouzanfar, M. H.
AU - Fullman, N.
AU - Goldberg, E. M.
AU - Graetz, N.
AU - Haagsma, J. A.
AU - Hay, S. I.
AU - Johnson, C. O.
AU - Kassebaum, N. J.
AU - Kawashima, T.
AU - Kemmer, L.
AU - Khalil, I. A.
AU - Kyu, H. H.
AU - Leung, J.
AU - Lim, S. S.
AU - Lopez, A. D.
AU - Marczak, L.
AU - Mokdad, A. H.
AU - Naghavi, M.
AU - Nguyen, G.
AU - Nsoesie, E.
AU - Olsen, H.
AU - Pigott, D. M.
AU - Pinho, C.
AU - Rankin, Z.
AU - Reinig, N.
AU - Sandar, L.
AU - Smith, A.
AU - Stanaway, J.
AU - Steiner, C.
AU - Teeple, S.
AU - Thomas, B. A.
AU - Alkerwi, A.
AU - GBD 2015 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators
N1 - Funding Information:
Bruce Bartholow Duncan and Maria Inês Schmidt have received additional funding from the Brazilian Ministry of Health (Process No 25000192049/2014-14). Itamar S Santos reports grants from FAPESP (Brazilian public agency), outside the submitted work. Carl Abelardo T Antonio reports grants, personal fees and non-financial support from Johnson & Johnson (Philippines), Inc, outside the submitted work. Cyrus Cooper reports other from Alliance for Better Bone Health, other from Amgen, other from Eli Lilly, other from GSK, other from Medtronic, other from Merck, other from Novartis, other from Pfizer, other from Roche, other from Servier, outside the submitted work. Walter Mendoza is currently employed by the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund, an institution which does not necessarily endorse this study. Donald S Shepard would like to acknowledge grant support from Sanofi Pasteur. Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos and Ferrán Catalá-López are supported in part by grant PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana, and Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos is supported by the national grant PI14/00894 from ISCIII-FEDER. Walter Mendoza is currently employed by the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund, an institution which does not necessarily endorse this study. Veena J Iyer has received a Public Health Research Initiative Fellowship (2014-17) from the Department of Science and Technology (DST) for a project titled “Relationship between Enteric Fever incidence and Climate in the city of Ahmedabad, 1990–2014”. Pablo M Lavados reports grants, personal fees and non-financial support from BAYER, non-financial support from Boehringer Ingelheim, grants and personal fees from AstraZeneca, grants from CONICYT, and grants from The George Institute for Global Health, outside the submitted work. Noela M Prasad reports and is an employee of an international NGO that raises funds from the Australian Public, and holds a honorary position at CERA, which receives Operational Infrastructure Support from the Victorian Government. Bradford D Gessner reports grants from Crucell, GSK, Hilleman Labs, Novartis, Pfizer, Merck, and Sanofi Pasteur, outside the submitted work. Ai Koyanagi's work is supported by the Miguel Servet contract financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects, integrated into the National R + D + I and funded by the ISCIII - General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research - and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF-FEDER). Dorairaj Prabhakaran reports grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Matthias Endres reports that The Center for Stroke Research Berlin has received institutional funding from the German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF). Katharine J Looker has received funding from the World Health Organization for the HSV-2 seroprevalence review which informs this work; during the study, KJL also received separate funding from the World Health Organization, USAID/PATH, Sexual Health 24 and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Evaluation of Interventions at the University of Bristol; these funders had no role in the writing of the manuscript nor the decision to submit it for publication, and the views expressed in this Article do not necessarily represent the views, decisions or policies of the World Health Organization, the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England. Donal Bisanzio is supported by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (#OPP1068048). Thomas Fürst has received financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF; project no P300P3-154634). Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez receives institutional support from Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales, UDCA, Bogotá Colombia. Ronan A Lyons is supported by two grants: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research: Arthritis Research UK, the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the Medical Research Council, the National Institute of Health Research, the National Institute for Social Care and Health Research (Welsh Assembly Government), the Chief Scientist Office (Scottish Government Health Directorates), and The Wellcome Trust. Grant No MR/K006525/1, and the National Centre for Population Health and Wellbeing Research. Health and Care Research Wales. Stefanos Tyrovolas's work is supported by the Foundation for Education and European Culture (IPEP), the Sara Borrell postdoctoral programme (reference no CD15/00019 from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII - Spain) and the Fondos Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER). Manami Inoue is the beneficiary of a financial contribution from the AXA Research fund as chair holder of the AXA Department of Health and Human Security, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo from Nov 1, 2012; the AXA Research Fund has no role in this work. Sinead M Langan holds an NIHR Clinician Scientist Fellowship (NIHR/CS/010/014); the views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health. Scott Weichenthal acknowledges financial support from the Cancer Research Society of Canada. Yogeshwar Kalkonde is a Wellcome Trust/ DBT India Alliance Intermediate Fellow in Public Health. John J McGrath received a NHMRC John Cade Fellowship (APP1056929). Sarah Derrett reports grants, personal fees, non-financial support and other from EuroQol Research Foundation, outside the submitted work. Dan J Stein reports personal fees from Lundbeck, personal fees from Novartis, personal fees from AMBRF, grants from NRGF, personal fees from Biocodex, personal fees from Sevier, grants from MRC, personal fees from SUN, and personal fees from CIPLA, outside the submitted work. Tea Lallukka reports funding from The Academy of Finland, grant #287488. Charles D A Wolfe's research was funded and supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. The views expressed are those of the author (s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health. The other authors declare no competing interests.
Funding Information:
We would like to thank the countless individuals who have contributed to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 in various capacities. This paper uses data from SHARE Waves 1, 2, 3 (SHARELIFE), 4, and 5 (DOIs: 10.6103/SHARE.w1.500, 10.6103/SHARE.w2.500, 10.6103/SHARE.w3.500, 10.6103/SHARE.w4.500, 10.6103/SHARE.w5.500), see Börsch-Supan et al (2013) for methodological details. The SHARE data collection has been primarily funded by the European Commission through FP5 (QLK6-CT-2001-00360), FP6 (SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006-062193, COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005-028857, SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006-028812), and FP7 (SHARE-PREP: N°211909, SHARE-LEAP: N°227822, SHARE M4: N°261982). Additional funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research, the US National Institute on Aging (U01_AG09740-13S2, P01_AG005842, P01_AG08291, P30_AG12815, R21_AG025169, Y1-AG-4553-01, IAG_BSR06-11, OGHA_04-064) and from various national funding sources is gratefully acknowledged (see www.share-project.org ). The data reported here have been supplied by the United States Renal Data System (USRDS). The interpretation and reporting of these data are the responsibility of the author(s) and in no way should be seen as an official policy or interpretation of the US Government. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license no. SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law—2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. This study has been realised using the data collectved by the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), which is based at the Swiss Centre of Expertise in the Social Sciences FORS. The project is financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The following individuals would like to acknowledge various forms of institutional support: Amanda G Thrift is supported by a fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT1042600). Panniyammakal Jeemon is supported by the Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance, Clinical and Public Health, Intermediate Fellowship (2015–20). Amador Goodridge would like to acknowledge funding for me from Sistema Nacional de Investigadores de Panamá-SNI. José das Neves was supported in his contribution to this work by a Fellowship from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/92934/2013). Boris Bikbov, Monica Cortinovis, Giuseppe Remuzzi, and Norberto Perico would like to acknowledge that their contribution to this paper has been on behalf of the International Society of Nephrology (ISN) as a follow-up of the activities of the GBD 2010 Genitourinary Diseases Expert Group. Lijing L Yan is supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China grants (71233001 and 71490732). Miriam Levi would like to acknowledge the institutional support received from CeRIMP, Regional Centre for Occupational Diseases and Injuries, Tuscany Region, Florence, Italy. Simon I Hay is funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (#095066), and grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1119467, OPP1093011, OPP1106023 and OPP1132415). No individuals acknowledged received additional compensation for their efforts.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license
PY - 2016/10/8
Y1 - 2016/10/8
N2 - Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
AB - Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84994092049&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27733282
U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6
M3 - Article
C2 - 27733282
AN - SCOPUS:84994092049
SN - 0140-6736
VL - 388
SP - 1545
EP - 1602
JO - The Lancet
JF - The Lancet
IS - 10053
ER -