Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: A modelling study

Sarah Blach; Stefan Zeuzem; Michael Manns; Ibrahim Altraif; Ann Sofi Duberg; David H. Muljono; Imam Waked; Seyed M. Alavian; Mei Hsuan Lee; Francesco Negro; Faisal Abaalkhail; Ahmed Abdou; Maheeba Abdulla; Antoine Abou Rached; Inka Aho; Ulus Akarca; Imad Al Ghazzawi; Saad Al Kaabi; Faryal Al Lawati; Khalid Al Namaani; Youssif Al Serkal; Said A. Al-Busafi; Layla Al-Dabal; Soo Aleman; Abdullah S. Alghamdi; Abdulrahman A. Aljumah; Hamad E. Al-Romaihi; Monique I. Andersson; Vic Arendt; Perttu Arkkila; Abdullah M. Assiri; Oidov Baatarkhuu; Abate Bane; Ziv Ben-Ari; Colm Bergin; Fernando Bessone; Florian Bihl; Abdul R. Bizri; Martin Blachier; Antonio J. Blasco; Carlos E. Brandao Mello; Philip Bruggmann; Cheryl R. Brunton; Filipe Calinas; Henry L.Y. Chan; Asad Chaudhry; Hugo Cheinquer; Chien Jen Chen; Rong Nan Chien; Carole Seguin-Devaux; The Polaris Observatory HCV Collaborators

doi:10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: A modelling study

Sarah Blach, Stefan Zeuzem, Michael Manns, Ibrahim Altraif, Ann Sofi Duberg, David H. Muljono, Imam Waked, Seyed M. Alavian, Mei Hsuan Lee, Francesco Negro, Faisal Abaalkhail, Ahmed Abdou, Maheeba Abdulla, Antoine Abou Rached, Inka Aho, Ulus Akarca, Imad Al Ghazzawi, Saad Al Kaabi, Faryal Al Lawati, Khalid Al NamaaniYoussif Al Serkal, Said A. Al-Busafi, Layla Al-Dabal, Soo Aleman, Abdullah S. Alghamdi, Abdulrahman A. Aljumah, Hamad E. Al-Romaihi, Monique I. Andersson, Vic Arendt, Perttu Arkkila, Abdullah M. Assiri, Oidov Baatarkhuu, Abate Bane, Ziv Ben-Ari, Colm Bergin, Fernando Bessone, Florian Bihl, Abdul R. Bizri, Martin Blachier, Antonio J. Blasco, Carlos E. Brandao Mello, Philip Bruggmann, Cheryl R. Brunton, Filipe Calinas, Henry L.Y. Chan, Asad Chaudhry, Hugo Cheinquer, Chien Jen Chen, Rong Nan Chien, Carole Seguin-Devaux, The Polaris Observatory HCV Collaborators

Infection and Immunotherapy Research

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

1661 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	161-176
Number of pages	16
Journal	The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology
Volume	2
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9
Publication status	Published - 1 Mar 2017

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Blach, S., Zeuzem, S., Manns, M., Altraif, I., Duberg, A. S., Muljono, D. H., Waked, I., Alavian, S. M., Lee, M. H., Negro, F., Abaalkhail, F., Abdou, A., Abdulla, M., Abou Rached, A., Aho, I., Akarca, U., Al Ghazzawi, I., Al Kaabi, S., Al Lawati, F., ... The Polaris Observatory HCV Collaborators (2017). Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: A modelling study. The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 2(3), 161-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

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title = "Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: A modelling study",

abstract = "Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.",

author = "Sarah Blach and Stefan Zeuzem and Michael Manns and Ibrahim Altraif and Duberg, {Ann Sofi} and Muljono, {David H.} and Imam Waked and Alavian, {Seyed M.} and Lee, {Mei Hsuan} and Francesco Negro and Faisal Abaalkhail and Ahmed Abdou and Maheeba Abdulla and {Abou Rached}, Antoine and Inka Aho and Ulus Akarca and {Al Ghazzawi}, Imad and {Al Kaabi}, Saad and {Al Lawati}, Faryal and {Al Namaani}, Khalid and {Al Serkal}, Youssif and Al-Busafi, {Said A.} and Layla Al-Dabal and Soo Aleman and Alghamdi, {Abdullah S.} and Aljumah, {Abdulrahman A.} and Al-Romaihi, {Hamad E.} and Andersson, {Monique I.} and Vic Arendt and Perttu Arkkila and Assiri, {Abdullah M.} and Oidov Baatarkhuu and Abate Bane and Ziv Ben-Ari and Colm Bergin and Fernando Bessone and Florian Bihl and Bizri, {Abdul R.} and Martin Blachier and Blasco, {Antonio J.} and {Brandao Mello}, {Carlos E.} and Philip Bruggmann and Brunton, {Cheryl R.} and Filipe Calinas and Chan, {Henry L.Y.} and Asad Chaudhry and Hugo Cheinquer and Chen, {Chien Jen} and Chien, {Rong Nan} and Carole Seguin-Devaux and {The Polaris Observatory HCV Collaborators}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2017 Elsevier Ltd",

year = "2017",

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doi = "10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9",

language = "English",

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pages = "161--176",

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Blach, S, Zeuzem, S, Manns, M, Altraif, I, Duberg, AS, Muljono, DH, Waked, I, Alavian, SM, Lee, MH, Negro, F, Abaalkhail, F, Abdou, A, Abdulla, M, Abou Rached, A, Aho, I, Akarca, U, Al Ghazzawi, I, Al Kaabi, S, Al Lawati, F, Al Namaani, K, Al Serkal, Y, Al-Busafi, SA, Al-Dabal, L, Aleman, S, Alghamdi, AS, Aljumah, AA, Al-Romaihi, HE, Andersson, MI, Arendt, V, Arkkila, P, Assiri, AM, Baatarkhuu, O, Bane, A, Ben-Ari, Z, Bergin, C, Bessone, F, Bihl, F, Bizri, AR, Blachier, M, Blasco, AJ, Brandao Mello, CE, Bruggmann, P, Brunton, CR, Calinas, F, Chan, HLY, Chaudhry, A, Cheinquer, H, Chen, CJ, Chien, RN, Seguin-Devaux, C & The Polaris Observatory HCV Collaborators 2017, 'Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: A modelling study', The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 161-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015

T2 - A modelling study

AU - Blach, Sarah

AU - Zeuzem, Stefan

AU - Manns, Michael

AU - Altraif, Ibrahim

AU - Duberg, Ann Sofi

AU - Muljono, David H.

AU - Waked, Imam

AU - Alavian, Seyed M.

AU - Lee, Mei Hsuan

AU - Negro, Francesco

AU - Abaalkhail, Faisal

AU - Abdou, Ahmed

AU - Abdulla, Maheeba

AU - Abou Rached, Antoine

AU - Aho, Inka

AU - Akarca, Ulus

AU - Al Ghazzawi, Imad

AU - Al Kaabi, Saad

AU - Al Lawati, Faryal

AU - Al Namaani, Khalid

AU - Al Serkal, Youssif

AU - Al-Busafi, Said A.

AU - Al-Dabal, Layla

AU - Aleman, Soo

AU - Alghamdi, Abdullah S.

AU - Aljumah, Abdulrahman A.

AU - Al-Romaihi, Hamad E.

AU - Andersson, Monique I.

AU - Arendt, Vic

AU - Arkkila, Perttu

AU - Assiri, Abdullah M.

AU - Baatarkhuu, Oidov

AU - Bane, Abate

AU - Ben-Ari, Ziv

AU - Bergin, Colm

AU - Bessone, Fernando

AU - Bihl, Florian

AU - Bizri, Abdul R.

AU - Blachier, Martin

AU - Blasco, Antonio J.

AU - Brandao Mello, Carlos E.

AU - Bruggmann, Philip

AU - Brunton, Cheryl R.

AU - Calinas, Filipe

AU - Chan, Henry L.Y.

AU - Chaudhry, Asad

AU - Cheinquer, Hugo

AU - Chen, Chien Jen

AU - Chien, Rong Nan

AU - Seguin-Devaux, Carole

AU - The Polaris Observatory HCV Collaborators

PY - 2017/3/1

Y1 - 2017/3/1

N2 - Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.

AB - Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85012877259&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

DO - 10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

M3 - Article

C2 - 28404132

AN - SCOPUS:85012877259

SN - 2468-1253

VL - 2

SP - 161

EP - 176

JO - The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology

JF - The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology

IS - 3

ER -

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: A modelling study

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